واکاوی اولین یخبندان پاییزه و آخرین یخبندان بهاره با رویکرد تغییر اقلیم ایستگاه همدید گرگان

نوع مقاله: پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد آب و هواشناسی دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران

2 گروه آب و هواشناسی دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران

3 دانش آموخته کارشناسی آب و هواشناسی دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران

10.22034/aej.2019.672649

چکیده

تغییر در تاریخ وقوع اولین یخبندان پاییزه و آخرین یخبندان بهاره، می­تواند تهدیدی جدی برای باغداران و کشاورزان باشد. هدف از این مطالعه، اطلاع از نحوه این تغییر در دوره­ی آینده (2068-2015) نسبت به دوره­ی پایه (2014-1961) در ایستگاه گرگان بود. بدین منظور داده­های روزانه دمای کمینه ایستگاه گرگان در دوره­ی پایه از اداره کل هواشناسی استان گلستان دریافت شد. سپس داده­های انسپ و سناریوهای خوشبینانه، حدواسط و بدبینانه­ی گزارش پنجم هیات بین­الدول تغییراقلیم از سایت تغییر اقلیم کانادا بارگیری و با استفاده از نرم­افزار SDSM داده­های کمینه دما در دوره­ی آینده برای سه سناریو مذکور تولید شد. سپس تاریخ شروع و پایان یخبندان به روز ژولیوسی محاسبه و با استفاده از نرم­افزار اسمادا با توزیع­های آماری مختلف برازش داده شد و با استفاده از توزیع­های مناسب­تر احتمال وقوع روزهای یخبندان محاسبه شد. نتایج این پژوهش بیانگر آن است که دوره­ی یخبندان در دوره­ی پایه 75 روز و برای دوره­ی آینده در سناریوی خوشبینانه 46 روز، در سناریو حدواسط 39 روز و در سناریوی بدبینانه 31 روز است که این نتایج نشان­دهنده کاهش معنی­دار دوره­ی یخبندان و افزایش دوره­ی رشد (رویش) گیاهان در دوره­ی آینده است که هوشیاری بیشتر برنامه­ریزان را جهت مقابله با آثار مخرب تغییر­اقلیم می­طلبد

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Detection of the first frost of autumn and the last frost of spring with the climate change approach at Gorgan synoptic station

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Imani Pour 1
  • Abdolreza Kashki 2
  • mina firoozyazdi 3
1 M.Sc. Graduate, Dept. of climatology, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
2 Department of Climatology, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
3 Undergraduate student degree in climatology, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran
چکیده [English]

Changes in the history of the first frost of autumn and the last frost in the spring could be a serious threat to gardeners and farmers. The purpose of this study is to know how this change will be in the future period (2015-2068) compared to the base period (1961-2014) at Gorgan Station. For this purpose, daily data of the Gorgan Minimum Temperature Station was obtained at the observation period from the Golestan Meteorological Office. Then NCEP data, CanESM_RCP_26, RCP_45, RCP 85 were downloaded from Canada's Climate Change site, and using SDSM software, the minimum temperature data for the next period was generated for the three scenarios. Then, the date of the beginning and the end of the glacial to date of Julius was calculated and fitted with SMADA software with different statistical distributions and, using more suitable distributions, the probability of occurrence of freezing days was calculated. The results of this study indicate that the glacial period in the observation period is 75 days. it is also 46 days for the upcoming period in the optimistic scenario. It includes 39 days in the intermediate period and 31 days in the pessimistic scenario, which results in a significant decrease in the duration of the ice period and the increase of the period Growth of plants in the course of the future, which requires more vigilance of planners to deal with the destructive effects of climate change.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  •  Climate change
  •  Global warming  Scenario  SDSM  The number of frosty days
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